Monday, August 24, 2009

Flat and easy

When the market is flat and oscillatory is easy to forecast it for quite some time, in this example we have daily chart of stm microelectronics listed at Milan stock exchange. With an average 13 bars cycle the auto regression algorytm that i use worked well. For one month it forecasted perfectly the behaviour of the stock, this is the best possible situation that can happen without a strong trend that hurts your forecast.
















The forecast starts at the right of the vertical blue line, the arrows point the 13 days cycle. The envelope bands also worked great giving supportand resistance for each day.

Here another example with the future of USD/GBP (1h chart):

No comments: