Many people and economists believe that there is no skill in speculation. More precisely they think that most investment and speculative success is indistinguishable from the result of blind luck. The more dogmatic ones say that Warren Buffet is just lucky, not good. For a good read on this subject I urge you to get Nassim Taleb's terrific book "Fooled by Randomness".
I think that successful speculators have a tangible skill, although it is not a skill that can be taught. Their skill is the ability to sense the direction in which the crowd ("flock" and "herd" are perhaps more informative images) of other speculators is about to turn, just at the point this turn is starting.
No comments:
Post a Comment