USD/GBP Cme Future, 1d chart

A downward channel, today failed to go over the midpoint of the channel.

Still bearish

Sp500, 1h chart view

995?

Flat and easy

When the market is flat and oscillatory is easy to forecast it for quite some time, in this example we have daily chart of stm microelectronics listed at Milan stock exchange. With an average 13 bars cycle the auto regression algorytm that i use worked well. For one month it forecasted perfectly the behaviour of the stock, this is the best possible situation that can happen without a strong trend that hurts your forecast.

The forecast starts at the right of the vertical blue line, the arrows point the 13 days cycle. The envelope bands also worked great giving supportand resistance for each day.

Here another example with the future of USD/GBP (1h chart):

The importance of the stop loss

My attemp to follow the downtrend, unfortunately the market often bring surprises even to the most sophisticated forecast methods.

At 986.25 i stopped because i smell too much strong, it was right and once again i underline the importance of the stop loss.

E-Mini S&P500, 1h chart

Today i bought first at 1007.25 then at the lower band at 998.25 just 1 tick above today low.

I sold everything at the entry price of the first contract, 1007.25.

Non farm payrolls -247k

It is a decent data, and fell in my forecast range. I expect a positive trend for employment for the rest of the year.

Non farm payrolls forecast for tomorrow

I expect for tomorrow a non farm payrolls close to -300K, my range is from -230K to -370K. On the left a forecast for all 2009 starting from january, the worst month. By the end of the year, in the best scenario we could even see a positive non farm payrolls that could put an end in this big crisis.